Bill Connelly, formerly of SB Nation, now nerding out with ESPN, is keeping his famed projection rankings alive. It used to be named S&P+ (success rate and points per play), but it is now just plain old SP+ since he dropped the ampersand from its title.
I’m not going to be the one to butcher an explanation on how Connelly has built the algorithm, so instead just read this explainer right here from his SB Nation days, or just take this explainer from the preseason rankings:
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
The SP+ rankings generally perform well against the spread — 52 to 54 percent success over a full season, which is excellent for a system projecting every game and not specifically adjusting for injury.
What goes into the projections?
The offseason projections — which, like ESPN Stats & Information’s Football Power Index, carry diminishing weight in the SP+ formulas throughout the season — are comprised of three factors:
Recent history: I use a weighted five-year history as a way of gauging program health. For most programs, what they have done of late is what they will most likely do moving forward.
Returning production: Instead of using returning starters, I created a formula for returning production based on which units seem to have the most effect on a team’s improvement or regression. As it turns out, continuity at quarterback, receiver and the secondary is far more impactful on SP+ rating the next year than continuity in other units. Accordingly, turnover in those areas takes on heavier weight.
Recent recruiting: Returning production measures what a program lost, and a two-year recruiting average fills in the gaps on what kind of talent and athleticism it has acquired to replace the lost producers.
I attempted to account for as many offseason transfers, dismissals and injuries as possible in the below numbers. Here are the current 2019 ratings, presented in the form of an adjusted points per game figure. No. 1 Alabama’s rating of 35.3 means the Crimson Tide are projected to be 35.3 points per game better than the average FBS team, while No. 130 UTEP’s rating of minus-30.2 means the Miners are projected to be 30.2 points per game worse than average.
MAC TEAMS’ SP+ RANKINGS
Below is my personal sheet where I’ll add each MAC teams’ national ranks with each weekly update.
If you want to get really into the weeds of the numbers (which I promise will make you smarter at understanding the game), then read up on Connelly’s work at ESPN with his updates. He’ll give you more than just the updated national rankings for all 130 teams. But with each weekly update he makes, I’ll make sure the sheet you read below is reflective of each change (or non-change.)
Through Week 2, MAC teams’ rankings:
- Ohio (National rank 68, up 2 spots from last week)
- Northern Illinois (80, -14)
- Toledo (87, -2)
- Miami (88, +17)
- Western Michigan (92, -29)
- Eastern Michigan (94, +3)
- Buffalo (99, +2)
- Ball State (101, +6)
- Kent State (117, +4)
- Central Michigan (124, -11)
- Bowling Green (127, -12)
- Akron (128, -1)
S.O.S. everything I said above and place them right here. The difference in reading this is that these are the average SP+ ratings by conference which is not the same as ranking, so there are some not-whole and negative numbers you’ll be seeing here (that’s how division works). The rankings themselves are pretty straight-forward, so listing these conferences 1-10 isn’t totally necessary. (I’m going to do it anyway.)
In the preseason, the MAC came out to be the ninth-highest rank conference in the FBS with an average rating of -9.8.
Through Week 2, FBS conferences’ average SP+ ratings:
- SEC (16.4, average up 0.7 from last week)
- Big Ten (9.8, +0.7)
- Big XII (8.1, +0.7)
- Pac-12 (7.0, -0.5)
- ACC (5.7, -0.4)
- AAC (-1.7,+0.7)
- MWC (-3.7, -1.8)
- Sun Belt (-6.8, +0.1)
- MAC (-11.2, -2.1)
- C-USA (-12.3, -1.8)